Climate Change and Poverty Trap in Rural China

　　基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目（71203094）;国家社会科学基金重大项目（11＆ZD155、10＆ZD031）

　　摘　　要：文章基于1989—2009年CHNS数据库中的农户平衡面板数据，实证分析了气候变化对中国农户资产动态的影响，并对比分析了“最贫困户”、“中等富裕户”与“最富裕户”的反应差异。结果表明：（1）中国农村并不存在基于多点均衡的贫困陷阱，而是多数农户都趋同于一个单一的长期福利均衡点。中国农户的资产增长趋势符合俱乐部效应中的“绝对β-收敛”（而非“条件β-收敛”），人均资产水平在不同群体之间呈现均等化趋势。（2）衣户投资对气温上升和旱灾增加的反应并不敏感，而对降雨减少却反应明显。当降雨减少时，“最贫困户”采取风险规避行为。其倾向于变卖消费型资产以平滑生产型与固定型资产；“中等富裕户”采取风险应对行为，其倾向于增加生产型与固定型资产投资；“最富裕户”则对降雨减少的反应不敏感，各类资产变化不明显。

　　Based on the balanced panel data of rural households in CHNS database from 1989 to 2009, this paper empirically analyzes the effect of climate change on assets dynamic of rural households in China and makes a comparison of differences in response among the poorest households, wealthy households at the medium level and the richest households. It comes to the following conclusions： first- ly, there is not a poverty trap based on multiple point equilibrium in rural China and the majority of ru- ral households converge at a single long-term welfare equilibrium point; the assets growth tendency of rural households in China is featured by absolute p-convergence in club effect （rather than conditional ~3 -convergence） and assets per capita between different groups are characterized by equalization; second- ly, investment of rural households is not sensitive to the rise in temperature and the increase in drought but obviously responds to the reduction in rainfall; under the reduction in rainfall, the poorest house- holds adopt risk aversion and tend to sell consumption-based assets to smooth production-based and fixed assets,and wealthy households at the medium level adopt risk response and tend to increase in- vestment on production-based and fixed assets; the richest households are not sensitive to the reduction in rainfall and have no significant changes in different types of assets.

　　关 键 词：气候变化 中国农村贫困陷阱 资产动态 消费平滑

　　climate change poverty trap in rural China assets dynamic consumption smoothing

　　分 类 号：F323

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